We recognise that sustainability-related challenges, including climate change, create both risks and opportunities for our businesses. We complete regular assessments of the implications of different sustainability risks and opportunities at the Group and operating company level. Due to the diversified nature of our group of companies, potentially material risks identified by an operating company may not be considered material for Swire Pacific.
Climate-related risks are identified and managed as part of our ERM system at both a Group and operating company level. Climate change has been identified as one of our key risks in our Group risk register in 2025. Climate risk, along with all other key risks, are reviewed by the Risk Forums and the GRMC on a quarterly basis.
To assess sustainability-related risks to our businesses we consider plausible but worst case scenarios, the outputs of climate-related scenario analysis, and nature risk assessments for our principal operating companies. We consider the operational, regulatory, reputational, human, strategic, and financial impact of climate change on our businesses. Potential sustainability-related opportunities are identified as part of our standard business planning activities.
Our climate change assessment conducted in 2024 and reviewed in 2025, covers scenarios over the short-to-medium term (until 2030) and over the long-term (up to 2050) and considers current and future exposures to physical and transition risks and opportunities in both low carbon and high carbon scenarios. The time horizons differ from those used to consider the onset velocity of risks under our ERM process, which focuses on a more immediate timescale.
For nature risk our businesses conducted industry risk assessments across our Property, Beverages, and Aviation divisions using tools such as Natural Capital Finance Alliance’s ENCORE, WWF Biodiversity Risk Filter, and the World Resources Institute’s (WRI) Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas. Where potential risks were identified, our businesses conducted further assessments to understand their exposure. Further information is available in Nature.
Our businesses' assessment of sustainability-related risks and mitigations is reviewed annually to incorporate any new material updates. The current conclusion is that the analysis remains appropriate, indicating an overall moderate to low assessed risk of physical and transition climate effects, adverse nature impacts, and other sustainability-related challenges over the short- to medium-term.
An analysis of our climate-related risks and opportunities follows in these subsections:
Due to the high levels of associated emissions from our investment in the Cathay group, we have included a summary of its potential climate-related risks. Refer also to the Swire Properties, Swire Coca-Cola, and Cathay Pacific sustainability reports for more information on their climate risks assessments.
Climate-related Scenarios
Our businesses have assessed the physical climate-related risks and opportunities for over 850 of the Group’s most valuable assets (by insured value), under four climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). This data has allowed us to accurately evaluate the exposure of specific assets and operations in selected timeframes, from the short- to medium-term (2030) to the long-term (2050). Due to the nature of climate risks, these time horizons used differ from those used to consider the onset velocity of other risks under our ERM process, which focuses on a more immediate timescale. We have considered the impact of carbon pricing transition risks based on the carbon pricing models included in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP3-60 and SSP3-45.
The Swire Pacific Sustainable Development function developed two distinct and plausible climate change scenarios to stress test the resilience of our businesses and strategy to varying future operating environments. The scenarios used by Swire Pacific are based on several publicly available climate scenarios from recognised authorities including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading UN body assessing the science of climate change. The scenarios incorporate global and local government policies, environmental, economic, social, and technology indicators and market trends. The scenarios are not intended to be predictions of the future; rather, they seek to stress-test our businesses against several plausible future states.
Our scenarios include assumptions on jurisdictional climate-related policies and commitments in our businesses’ locations of operation, expected grid decarbonisation, technological developments, for example on SAF availability, and forecast changes to local weather patterns to the extent they are available. These scenarios help us to consider the physical and transition risks and the opportunities posed by climate change that could potentially impact our business operations and our value chain. Due to uncertainties in climate projections, technological advances and policy implementation, we review the scenarios to consider new developments and regularly use them in workshops to identify and assess climate risk.
Swire Properties has conducted detailed asset-level assessments to evaluate the degree of sensitivity and adaptive capacity of individual developments under the potential impacts of climate change. These assessments consider system robustness such as existing flood prevention systems and façade conditions; system redundancy, such as the capacity of chillers and water supply; and susceptibility to past extreme weather events.
The Cathay group has carried out scenario analysis using four different scenarios building upon key insights and global, local and sector-specific drivers and trends. Within each scenario, key drivers of change were identified, ranging from climate impacts on flight operations to political will, to the emergence of transformative technologies. Please refer to Cathay Pacific's sustainability report.